Friday, May 16, 2008

Potential Outcomes

Carl Icahn is nobody's tool. In fact with his opportunistic involvement he has made a tool out of YHOO and MSFT. He would just act as a catalyst to force a quick outcome. If YHOO panicks first then it would sign a deal with GOOG. Carl will make about 4-5$/share with this outcome, not a bad deal for him, for couple of weeks of work. If MSFT panicks, then they pick up YHOO at ~$35/share with Yang on board. This would be a better outcome for Icahn. In either scenerio MSFT would be a loser and YHOO and GOOG would be winners.

In the low probability case that nothing happens in next couple of months, YHOO will trade close to $25-26, MSFT remains virtually unchanged and Icahn doesn't lose anything. So its a ~free arbitrage opportunity for him.

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